antonio solano
Note until September 30, 2022
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total investment return
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Functional and Portfolio Analysis
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portfolio
As you may know, stock market and portfolio performance has been positive for intermittent periods leading up to September 13th. US inflation data released on Sept. 13 confirmed a second straight month of flat inflation.
Below is a chart showing monthly CPI trends released by the US BLS.
Changes in the Consumer Price Index from the previous month (US BLS)
But the stock market fell unsatisfactorily as the Federal Reserve insisted on staying on its previously announced path rather than being sensitive to or weighting this incoming data. . To be clear, the world was screaming, “Why can’t we see that inflation is not temporary?” or”.
As long as conditions such as input costs, consumer behavior, business decisions on employment and pricing, and expectations of future price increases remain similar to those observed in July or August 2022, the CPI will remain unchanged year-on-year. is mathematically degraded by to low level.
Opinion aside, if the CPI were to hover around 1.2% a year and the Federal Reserve implemented its plan to raise the Fed funds rate from 4.25% to 4.50%, real interest rates would be significantly positive.
The upside for our portfolios, and investors more broadly, lies in the fact that this level of tightening far exceeds even the most hawkish of central bankers would like. This is especially true in the context of large public debt.
Since the CPI announcement in August, the economy has deteriorated, with the job openings to unemployment ratio (a measure that influences monetary policy) falling from 2:1 to 1.67:1. Both should put more downward pressure on the CPI. .
All of the stocks we hold are great businesses that cut through the environment. I believe that a portfolio that can avoid the whiplash and turn into a great business will be set up to deliver great results in two, five and ten years.
In the short term, we have three more CPI data releases on the 2022 calendar and two more Federal Reserve meetings, but we can’t announce them any time soon.
Portfolio positioning
At the end of the month, the portfolio held 10 shares, 10 of which were listed in the US. Following the end of the month, the portfolio parted with one of his shares and reinvested the earnings into the remaining positions.
At the end of the month, the total exposure of the portfolio was 96.4%, consisting of 96.4% long and 0% short. 3.6% for cash. After selling one stock, the cash weight increased by a few percentage points.
In terms of liquidity, the weighted average market capitalization is A$124 billion, with the lowest market capitalization equities at around A$3 billion.
Cumulative total investment return
Growth of an estimated $500,000 investment in reference accounts
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date |
total revenue |
total monthly earnings |
|
March 27, 18 |
$500,000 |
|
|
March 18th |
$500,859 |
+0.17% |
|
April 18th |
$536,101 |
+7.04% |
|
May 18th |
$611,001 |
+13.97% |
|
June 18th |
$605,669 |
-0.87% |
|
July 18th |
$645,902 |
+6.64% |
|
August 18th |
$710,053 |
+9.93% |
|
September 18th |
$766,429 |
+7.94% |
|
October 18th |
$662,130 |
-13.58% |
|
November 18th |
$655,769 |
-0.99% |
|
December 18th |
$615,634 |
-6.12% |
|
January 19th |
$677,324 |
+10.02% |
|
February 19th |
$707,893 |
+4.51% |
|
March 19th |
$705,362 |
-0.36% |
|
April 19th |
$733,917 |
+4.05% |
|
May 19th |
$676,106 |
-7.88% |
|
June 19th |
$741,201 |
+9.63% |
|
July 19th |
$803,346 |
+8.38% |
|
August 19th |
$797,733 |
-0.70% |
|
September 19th |
$798,650 |
+0.11% |
|
October 19th |
$748,230 |
-6.31% |
|
November 19th |
$779,172 |
+4.14% |
|
December 19th |
$818,501 |
+5.05% |
|
January 20th |
$839,480 |
+2.56% |
|
February 20th |
$810,870 |
-3.41% |
|
March 20th |
$824,619 |
+1.70% |
|
April 20th |
$893,734 |
+8.38% |
|
May 20th |
$958,217 |
+7.22% |
|
June 20th |
$935,799 |
-2.34% |
|
July 20th |
$937,519 |
+0.18% |
|
August 20th |
$968,929 |
+3.35% |
|
September 20 |
$937,822 |
-3.21% |
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October 20th |
$953,314 |
+1.65% |
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November 20th |
$1,142,256 |
+19.82% |
|
December 20th |
$1,174,271 |
+2.80% |
|
January 21st |
$1,203,102 |
+2.46% |
|
February 21st |
$1,244,352 |
+3.43% |
|
March 21st |
$1,197,558 |
-3.76% |
|
April 21st |
$1,200,664 |
+0.26% |
|
May 21st |
$1,207,360 |
+0.56% |
|
June 21st |
$1,360,798 |
+12.71% |
|
July 21st |
$1,334,451 |
-1.94% |
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August 21 |
$1,316,021 |
-1.38% |
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September 21st |
$1,293,864 |
-1.68% |
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October 21st |
$1,288,297 |
-0.43% |
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November 21st |
$1,300,476 |
+0.95% |
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December 21st |
$1,243,326 |
-4.39% |
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January 22nd |
$1,148,822 |
-7.60% |
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February 22 |
$1,166,565 |
+1.54% |
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March 22 |
$1,085,247 |
-6.97% |
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April 22nd |
$952,339 |
-12.25% |
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May 22nd |
$973,380 |
+2.21% |
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June 22nd |
$871,340 |
-10.48% |
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July 22 |
$1,000,517 |
+14.83% |
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August 22nd |
$939,974 |
-6.05% |
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September 22nd |
$884,736 |
-5.88% |
Thank you.
Thank you for reading this Anders note/update. If you would like to get in touch with us, please do so using our contact form on his website Andaz®.
Best regards,
Zhang Yi Zhong
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Editor’s note: The summary bullet points for this article were chosen by the editors of Seeking Alpha.
